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Amid a slowing national market, Bernal Heights maintained its steady growth last year.
Analysis
2018 saw modest price gains for the Bernal Heights Real Estate market with a 5% year-over-year appreciation for single family homes. This is good by most standards across the country, but compared to city overall growth rate of 13%, Bernal’s recently hot real estate market has been tempered.
Bernal is one of the larger neighborhoods in San Francisco and has had more single family home sales than any other neighborhood in the city, by a considerable amount. 175 houses traded in 2018. Noe Valley is a distant second with only 128 homes sold in the same year. Since we cover such a large geography, we’ve analyzed our favorite neighborhood into micro-hoods, using nomenclature derived from our friends at Bernalwood.
Foggy Vista took the crown for highest median price per square foot for the year at $1,224/ft, followed closely by Cortlandia at $1,219/ft. Cortlandia is home to 497 Ellsworth, which sold for the highest price on a per foot basis at $1,744/ft. The highest priced sale of the year was also in Foggy Vista, where the founding and lone $4M club member sits on its perch at 2 Bonview. The bargain-priced sale of the year award belongs to 501 Crescent, which traded at $700k. This corner spot, which can best be described as a hole in the ground marked by a seemingly perpetual construction site, is an indication of value for a vacant lot around here.
Forecast
2019 has started off with a bang, with busy open houses and strong buyer demand. Interest rates have stabilized and the Fed is signaling they may not raise rates for the short term. As the stock market holds steady and/or gains ground, buyers’ confidence increases and homes will likely trade more easily.
2018 was slower in the back half of the year than we’ve seen in a while, which may have caused some buyers to put on the brakes in anticipation of a market decline. However, the recent surge in new buyer demand since January 1st, assuming it sustains thru the first half of the year, may alter that expectation.
According to LinkedIn’s Workplace Report, hiring growth in the bay area is strong with a 5% increase in job postings for Dec 2018 compared to Dec 2017. Job and wage growth are the biggest factors affecting consumer’s confidence in real estate. SF companies, Uber, Lyft, Slack and Postmates are all expected to IPO this year with AirBnB and Pinterest hot on their heels. This fresh new batch of millionaires will almost certainly have a lifting effect on housing prices.
Overall, we believe the 2019 market looks good for sellers and remains challenging for buyers. Political chaos at the National level is the greatest concern for market stability and appreciation locally.
This market report is brought to you in partnership with Phillip Cannon of Guaranteed Rate®.
