2017 was yet another record year for real estate in Bernal Heights. The median sale price soared to $1.476M, a 9% gain over last year and almost double the median sale price from only five years ago ($775k in 2012).
The Bernal Heights market had been slowing over the past three years, but that trend reversed in 2017. The median price per square foot for single family houses broke the $1k/ft barrier and settled at $1,022/ft by year-end. 195 homes were sold in 2017, which is 14% more than last year and the most since 2005.
Four homes joined the $3M club, an exclusive group that only 9 families can claim in the history of Bernal, with the crown belonging to 88 Montcalm ($3.85M). There were 30 homes sold between $2M-$3M this year and only 65 ever.
Our Forecast
We believe the Bernal Real Estate market will remain strong as San Francisco wage growth and employment are high, but may slow somewhat due to macroeconomic factors related to a reduction in the tax deductions, rising interest rates and the volatility of the stock market.
The $750k cap on the mortgage interest deduction and the $10k cap on state and local property and income tax deductions will make homeownership slightly less attractive in general, and will affect most new buyers in Bernal. Many home buyer’s down payment funds are tied closely to the stock market and recent market volatility introduces uncertainty.
The National Association of Realtors forecasts mortgage rates will average 4.6% throughout the year and reach 5.0% (for a 30 year fixed) by the end, further reducing buyer’s buying power.
Taxes are not a primary driver, but rather an added benefit for most people searching for a primary residence in Bernal Heights and this change will have a minor impact, if any, on housing prices. Stock market volatility and rising interest rates are the greatest risk to appreciation this year.
Bernal Heights is a very attractive neighborhood because of its proximity to the city, views, weather, distinct vibe and relative affordability when compared to Noe Valley, Glen Park and Potrero Hill.
This report powered first appeared on BernalHeights.com and was written by Michael Minson and Danielle Lazier. If you’re thinking of buying or selling real estate in Bernal Heights, we are your local experts and are happy to help.
